DYING ON THE BUBBLE

I invested hours into a $20 tourney with 124 entrants. I played the Hellmuth brand of conservativism, never making a bold move unless I had the goods. Ultimately, there were 12 players left, and only 6 per table. I played KQ on the button, which is a nice looking hand against a small field. Still, I want to hit the flop or get out cheaply. The price of admission is $400 and I've got about $13,000.

Flop comes 6AA, two spades. There are four players.

Players one thru three check to me. I figure there's a real good chance I have the best hand, so I bet $1000, looking for three folds. I get the first two, then the catbird seat raises to $3000. He's got $35,000.

Could he have a 6? No. If he had a 6, he would have bet into me, no question.

Could he have an A? No. He would not slowplay the aces with a flush draw on the board and too late in position to attempt a check raise.

What could he have? There are three options. He could be bluffing, in which case I have him beat. He could have a pocket pair. But would he check raise me with that? Or he could have a flush draw, which I deem most likely, as he is trying to intimidate me out of the pot by gambling I'm on a steal.

The conservative approach would surrender and let him have it. But I've seen this guy in action buying pots already. I really think he's on a flush draw, as he would have bet anything else. Even if he has a pair, I have two overcards in my hole and a fighting chance. I decide not to get cute. I'm representing aces, so if I continue the charade with conviction, he should fold his pair or draw.

I go all in.

In my opinion, he makes a mistake here. He calls. He has JJ. Of course, he wins the pot and I take a shower, but I made it so clear that I held an ace, that I'm still surprised he would call ten grand with jacks after not betting them to begin with. He must have figured I was playing a flush draw, in which case, Hellmuth would still advise him to fold at that price.

Hellmuth advises to make moves and steal blinds near the bubble. This tourney paid out to ten spots, and there were 12 players at the time of my move. All my poker knowledge conspired to make me take a risk here. I'm interested in hearing opinions from my pals.