JANUARY 2006 ANALYSIS

When I was in Nice, sitting on the poker panel, I explained that I basically play day-to-day poker to break even. If I come out even, or a little ahead at the end of the month, I'm satisfied, so long as I am continually giving myself opportunities for an occasional big score, such as the one I hit in Monaco. I only need one of those every year or two to make all the time at the tables pay off. Meanwhile, all the experience I am gathering is feeding into those big events when I will need to play my best poker. So, my January results reflect that philosophy rather well. I ran on the tournament treadmill all month, making a few dollars, which I then blew at the cash games, playing over my head in an attempt to improve.

TOURNAMENTS: NET PROFIT $396

I divided my tournament play into three categories: heads up, events under 30 entrants, and multi-table events (MTT). I played some heads-up, but not much, because I was not doing so well and the rake tends to add up. In ten matches, I won only four, for a net loss of $249. Included in this result is a $225 event, in which I won the first round, but lost the second round to miss the payout structure. So, basically, I broke even in heads-up play, because the next time I played a similar multi-tiered event, I included it in my MTT stats.

Next month, I think I will differentiate tournaments as STT and MTT, rather than using the arbitrary 30-entrant cutoff. So this month, my STT results include not only single-tables, but also whatever two- and three-table events I played, which generally are going to be qualifiers. This was where I had my best results for January, winning $1342 more than it cost me to play. I am definitely better in the smaller tournaments because I can see the finish line when I hear the starting gun. I think the biggest flaw in my game is losing my patience in the mid-to-late stages of a MTT, so that flaw is bypassed in the STT, in which I begin play at the final table without the four stress-filled hours leading up to it.

One nice stretch I had was over the course of a couple of days when I played several $225 single-table turbo games at PokerStars. The turbo element made it even faster-paced than usual, yet I was able to dial up my patience and wait for hands with which to get busy. So long as I didn't get unlucky, this was a fast track to the payout structure. Although I missed the money twice, I also finished third once, second thrice, and first once. One of those second-place finishes, I had all my money in with KQ v KJ only to see two jacks hit the board. My lone win was especially satisfying as I had been on the short stack after a bad early beat. The win paid $945, which was my biggest win in the STT category.

Some of my other STT successes were winning a $120 for $15; winning a $320 ticket for $44; and winning a $650 ticket for $70. Since I didn't cash in any of the events I went on to play with those tickets, my results tend to skew positive for the STT, while the MTT results show the losses of $120, $320, and $650, even though I had qualified for those events on the cheap. The $650 win was especially satisfying because it was a winner-take-all qualifier in which I sat with several players I knew. I was motivated to play my A-game with my friends in attendance. I always feel I play better when my play is being judged, because I tend toward text-book play, yet I always seem to pick the perfect spots in which to get creative. I nearly parlayed that ticket into a trip to Bellagio, but I could do no better than third in the $650 event, which was winner-take-all.

In MTTs, my numbers are not what I wish them to be. I played 45 events, but made the money in only eight, or 18% of them. I really want to get that up to 25% at the very least. In total, I posted a net loss of $697, which includes the face value of any tickets used to enter events. It's not a horrible loss, considering I played in events as high as $650, and regularly entered $50 and $100 events. Too often though, I would find myself in the middle of a $100 event, when I would suddenly realize I was half-asleep, or the landscapers were knocking on my door, etc. I am going to pay special attention in February to game selection, and make sure I don't enter any MTTs unless I have four hours blocked for it. If I am not sure I have the time to give the event my best attention, then I am going to play cash games instead.

In those 45 events, I finished in the top 20% of the field 13 times, or 29%, which includes my eight cashes. I finished in the bottom half of the field 16 times, or 36%. So, 36% of the time, I either played poorly, or took a huge risk to try to get myself a chip stack which could carry me into the 20%. The other 35% of the time, I finished in the middle of the pack, which is generally the result of going card dead just as the blinds reach triple digits.

The highlight of the month came early, when I entered a $20 rebuy event, and got hit in the face by the deck in round one. There were 387 entrants, many of whom rebought and added-on, while I did neither. I finished third for a $1744 payday, my best of the month. My next highest finish was 9th in a field of 317 in a $50 event which netted me $317. I ended the month with two money finishes: 18/410 in a $100 event for $410, in which I died with AK v QQ; and in my final event of the month, I finished 17/235 in a $50 for $410. This time, I died on the button, pushing with A2, finding AT in the small blind.

CASH GAMES: NET LOSS $1226

Okay, here is where it gets ugly. I began the month playing the occasional $5/10 Limit HE, and posting decent results. I took my profits into the high-limit Omaha-8 games and got my ass handed to me. This is the curse of the bankroll. My risk tolerance has increased such that I no longer derive thrills from any limit games below $5/10. Whereas I can hold my own in the HE games, I am still learning the ins and outs of Omaha, and I've got no business playing at the stakes in which I am playing. I had one devestating session, in which I used my Full Contact Poker account to play at the $10/20 O8 table and lost $500 in due course. I was playing well, I thought, and getting hammered at the river, so I bought in for another $500 to allow luck to even out, but the luck continued to run bad and I lost $1000 on the evening. I wasn't playing like a fool either, I was getting my money in good, but that is Omaha in a nut shell. The nuts changes with the turn of every card, and my early nuts never seemed to hold up. Now at this level, players know the odds of their cards coming through, even if an opponent has exactly the hand he is representing, so even though the other players were chasing me, they were catching often enough to make it pay off. Whereas I was so gun shy on the flop, that unless I had the nuts already, I was extremely hesitant to get involved. That, dear readers, is a recipe for losing at Omaha.

I played another O8 session at the $3/6 NL table at FCP. I was doing well in this game, up several hundred dollars, but the table broke up, leaving me heads up with a much better player. Just as I realized I needed to get out of the game, a hand came up in which we both enthusiastically pushed all our money into the middle. His hand finished ahead and it was a $400 loss for me. I did make $180 at $5/10 O8 Limit. I don't think you will see me playing Omaha above $5/10 anytime soon, and I would be best served getting my experience at the $3/6 Limit tables. I do want to play the best competition I can afford, and I don't mind spending a little for the education, but no more swimming with the sharks for me.

After my Omaha disasters, my LHE game began to suffer as well. I went from winner to loser on the month. Again, I played anonymously at Full Contact Poker, but even in the $3/6 game, I got hammered for $329. My $5/10 results made a big swing until I was down $754 on the month. I got into a bad habit of just playing poorly - too fast, recklessly aggressive. I was playing short-handed, and pushing every pot, assuming nobody is going to contest unless they flopped a monster. That is not a bad no-limit strategy, but my results speak for themselves when applying this strategy to Limit Hold'em. I did manage to turn a $328 profit at the $10/20 table, but this time I actually was getting the cards to back up my aggressive play.

I will be playing a different brand of Limit Hold'em in February. I have already played a session, in which I remained patient and focused on making good decisions based on the odds. The results are much better, rest assured. I am going to try to keep from getting stupid in the cash games this month, because I realy do want to become a good cash game player, and I think it is within reach.

The cash game I play the least, and the one in which I enjoyed the most success in January, was NLHE. I had one glorious $3/6 NL session, in which I was focused on the action, made smart decisions, and took $746 off the table. It seemed so easy, I left myself to wonder why I even play the other stuff at all. If I just want to play poker to make money, I could focus squarely on the NLHE cash games, with tournaments sprinkled in. However, I must confess, I am not playing just for the money. I am also playing for the experience, and experience comes at a price. I jump into games I am not ready for, and endure losses, not becuase I enjoy losing money, but because I want to get better at those games, and I need to play the best competition I can afford.

On January 31, I sat at a $2/2 NLHE table for a few hours. I made one horrible $100 crying call, but mostly just got unlucky in the big pots, and still, I won $11. I could play $2/2 NLHE all day every day for the rest of my life. That is the game I was playing at Bally/Paris in December. For $2, I could take flops all day long, and know what to do post-flop to either get away from the hand or extract bets from my opponents. I am never too frightened to push $200 into the pot at any time, so there is no such thing as playing scared at those stakes. It is a whole different feeling playing with confident money as opposed to playing with scared money.

One had in particular will illustrate: It was a battle of the blinds, the small blind raised me preflop, and I reraised with AQ. He called, so we seemed to have two legitimate hands in battle. The flop came T64 all clubs. He bet $30. I had the ace of clubs, and I immediately raised to $70. He folded and told me he laid down jacks. I earned that pot, not with the best cards, but with confidence and aggression. I was 100% willing to push $200 into the middle on that flop, even though I was on a draw. Now, put $1000 in front of me, and am I still raising there? The answer should be yes, because raising wins the pot, but in truth, I don't know. The added fear maybe turns my raise in that spot into a call. So the adage, play at the highest stakes at which you feel comfortable, definitely applies. I don't want to be afraid to raise in that spot, so if I am, I know I am not in the right game.

So, to sum up, I plan to play more NLHE in February. I plan to work on my limit game at the $5/10 level until I am posting consistant results. I plan to keep gathering experience at Omaha and 7-Stud, but at lower limits, and I plan to avoid MTTs unless I can commit the 3-4 hours needed to play well.

Two other quick hits: I never did post anything about Team Tournaments, but I cobbled together a team at PokerRoom and we played one evnt in January, which cost me $65. I will plan to catch up on that post this month. Also, because I made Team PokerRoom in December, I was eligible for the TeamMate Bonus, which was paid to me in January. That bonus was worth $1510 in tournament tickets, some of which I used in January, and the rest of which I will use in February. So, with the bonus, and the team event, and the cash games, and the tournaments, my final result for January 2006 is:

NET PROFIT $604.