PAINFUL ELIMINATION 02/11/08

It is early still but this one will hold up: I have $1310 early in a single table tournament. With four players yet to act, I raise with QT and get called by the button and small blind.

Flop: (Td 2h 4c)
Pot: $200
Action: I bet $100 and the small blind calls.

Turn: (Td 2h 4c) (Qd)
Pot: $400
Action: He checks, I bet $250, he calls.

River: (Td 2h 4c) (Qd) (Jd)
Pot: $900
Action: He checks, I bet $450, he raises to $900, I call off my final $450.
Showdown: I have two pair, he shows (As Kc) for the straight.

Analysis: The guy got lucky on the river. By that point, most of my chips were in the middle and I wasn't folding my two pair. I thought his most likely hand to beat me was some sort of A4 flush, but who in their right mind would check the river with a flush?

He could have raised preflop with AK but it is not unusual to sneak into a hand early in a tournament and hope to have somebody outkicked when a big card comes. He has only an unpaired hand and he is out of position so generally, he should only continue with the hand if he pairs on the flop. He whiffed the flop but unless I have a ten, he is likely still in the lead. I made a standard continuation bet but it is at least a bit more likely that I have something since I am betting into two opponents and not just one. I'm not crazy about his call on the flop but after the button folds, I don't really mind his call either. In fact, I think he could have check-raised in that spot with AK. In this particularly scenario, he would have run into a hand, but more often than not, I think his AK is either good in that spot or the check-raise would get me off of a pair under tens.

I don't like his call on the turn at all. Even if I had missed the ten, now I am betting the queen. He's got to figure he's behind at this point. In a single-table event, I don't think you can really afford to be paying for inside straight draws even if you think hitting an overcard may be good. I had only $900 remaining in my stack and he called off $250 even though hitting his overcard may not be good in this spot, as it would not have been had he caught an ace or king. He was dead to the jack, putting him at four outs, but even if he had the full ten outs, I think he should cut his losses at this point.

Finally, when he does make his straight on the river, how is he so sure I'm going to bet after that third diamond comes? There's no way I'm betting one pair in this spot and I'm likely not even betting JT. I suppose I could even check my QT, fearing the QJ but how do you put a guy on QJ here? I certainly didn't have him on AK or a flush so when he raised me, I eagerly called off my chips, expecting to see JT.

So, I fell victim to good cards played poorly - he failed to raise preflop when he was ahead, he called on the flop when he was behind, he called on the turn when he was dead to a jack, and when he hit his hand, he checked and crossed his fingers that I would bet it for him. When I do, he raises, even though he could be beat by a flush. He's only getting paid off if I bet two pair; he's losing most of his stack if I have a flush. I'd say it worked out pretty well for him.