HAND HISTORY

Ok, I haven't posted in forever because things have not been going well on the felt, but I don't need to wait for good news to report. Instead, I'll rejoin the discussion with a nutty hand that just played out in the opening minutes of a Full Tilt tourney. The table just closed as I was typing so I lost the bet amounts, but I will try to recreate them from memory:

Dude (Qs Jd) big blind at six-handed table
Villain 1 (Jc 5c) playing aggressively in very early stages
Villain 2 (Ad Th) solid game with free advice included

Blinds at $15/30
Villain 1 raises UTG to $90
Villain 2 calls $90
SB calls $90 from small blind

Dude calls $90 from big blind

Four-way to flop with $360 pot

Flop: Tc 9s 6c

SB checks
Dude checks
Villain 1 checks
Villain 2 bets $300
SB folds
Dude calls $300
Villain 1 calls $300
Three-way to turn with $1260 pot

Turn: (Tc 9s 6c) Jh

Dude checks
Villain 1 goes all-in for some absurd amount, ($3000 starting stack)
Villain 2 calls all-in
Dude calls all-in
Three-way all-in to river with massive pot to sole survivor

Villain 1 (Jc 5c) 28.5%
Villain 2 (Ad Th) 9.5%
Dude (Qs Jd) 62.0%

River: (Tc 9s 6c Jh) As

Villain 2 won the hand and after my avatar disappeared, his remark to the table was "Well, neither of them had any business calling my initial $300 bet. They were both on draws."

In hindsight, with the hole card camera, it looks like I played this hand optimally. In reality, when I overcalled all-in, I was certainly not expecting to be the massive favorite but I thought there was enough money in the middle that I was getting good gambling odds. I knew I didn't want to see a club on the river, but I did figure I needed help.

To analyze the hand, when the flop checked around to Villain 2 and he bets $300, he really could have anything in that spot. The only thing I am certain of is that he doesn't have a monster because he is trying to end the hand here. Even if I give him credit for top pair with top kicker (his actual hand), I still must call the bet because my hand is the statistical favorite at this point with 14 outs twice. Once I make the call, it is fairly automatic for the flush draw to come in as well. So, once the cards were exposed, for Villain 2 to remark that neither of us had any business calling his bet really is just an admission that he doesn't quite know how to play the game.

If I made a mistake in the hand, it was not firing a huge bet at the turn once the jack hit. I still wasn't sure I had the best hand, but I was convinced at that point that all my money would get in anyways if necessary, so I should have just led out with a pot-sized bet that commits me to the hand. Villain 1 would have certainly called but I think at that point Villain 2 would reluctantly muck.

As it played out, Villain 2 never even considered that the jack helped anybody and figured we were both still on a draw. Sure one of us has clubs and maybe the jack didn't help, but what about the other draw? Very real possibility it was a QJ straight draw which just made top pair - or even a made 87 straight or a set. The odds of AT being good after the turn were astronomically low. Yet, his horse came in, and it was soon followed by some retroactive advice for both of his opponents simply to fold the flop in the face of his $300 bet.