HAND OF THE DAY 09.25.08

It's been rough waters since my two cashes a couple of weeks ago. Yesterday delivered a painful dose of suck when I sat down to play PLO8 and promptly went up $800 before a sick turnabout made for a huge downswing and a $400 loss on the day. I ran into the guy who could not lose and lost pot after pot to him when he consistently hit the river card after the money was in. I do think there is profit to be made at that game though, as the day before, I was the guy who could not lose, which means the other guy was missing the river card after the money went in.

Today, I waited until the 10AM $109 MTT before jumping into a game. I was ready for a long day of patient poker but was instead served the rich irony of being the first player to bust. Here it is in its entirety. It is the first deal of the $10/20 level. The table has not even filled up yet. There are two empty seats. It folds to me on the cutoff with Kd-Jh and I pop it to $60. The small blind calls and the big blind folds.

POT: $140
FLOP: Qs-Tc-9h
ACTION: * / B $100 / C
ANALYSIS: I've flopped the stone nuts. There is no flush draw. He's either got none of it, or some of it, but I've got to bet to build a pot, so I make the standard continuation bet after he checks to me. He calls, which leads me to think he's got some of it, or at least a jack for the straight draw.

POT: $340
TURN: Qs-Tc-9h / 2s
ACTION: * / B $200 / R $1280 / C
ANALYSIS: The deuce changes nothing. I've still got the nuts. Now there is a spade draw to go with the straightening flop, but he is still checking to me. I don't want to lose him, so I double my bet to $200, hoping he will call again and pad my stack in the early going. He surprises me by check/raising me half his stack. The obvious play here is to reraise all-in but since I'm holding the nuts and he will be forced to act first on the river, I opt for the delayed shove to allow better odds that he will commit all his chips. He probably would commit them on the turn if he thinks he's strong enough to check/raise but I just don't want to take the chance that he will fold to my shove. I decide it is a better play to show weakness and let him continue applying pressure on the river. Sure, I'm giving him the free card, but there's really no difference whether the card comes first or not since my prime directive is to get his chips in the pot. If he beats me on the river, then he was going to beat me anyways if we had gotten all in on the turn. I'm basically deciding to go with my hand regardless of what comes on the river, whether the board pairs or if another spade comes. If either of those cards helps him, then he was destined to suck out on me. If he's got J-8 or Q-T, then I'm figuring his money is going in on the river regardless of what comes.

POT: $2900
RIVER: Qs-Tc-9h / 2s / 9c
ACTION: B $620 / R $1560 all-in / C
ANALYSIS: I'm not loving the nine on the river, but I'm not going to chicken out now. I already decided on the turn that I was going with the hand on the river. I expected him to shove, but he instead only bets half his stack, so I complete the bet by raising all-in. He calls and shows a pair of deuces for the full house. Yuck. The old runner-runner boat over the nut straight routine.