Friday, July 28, 2006

VARIANCE

Just a quick response to DBOKachan on how I deal with bad beats. Honestly, I think the more you play, the less they trouble you. I log 98% of my poker time online (alone) and I am a fairly even-keeled guy, so when I suffer a horrific beat, my blink rate may increase, but I generally don't go throwing mice or cursing at the kids, since there is no audience to receive my tirade.

Always keep in mind:

- If you are a good player, you will go deeper in most events you play, opening yourself up to more opportunities for your luck to sour.

- If you are a good player, you will nearly always get your money in with the best cards, so the only way you are going to lose is via a bad beat.

- If the bad players never got lucky, they would all quit playing poker.

So, bad beats are simply a necessary evil. When I am playing nearly every day, I always have another tournament to look forward to, so I take comfort in knowing that I died with my boots on, no matter how horrific my exit. I actually want to lose to bad beats, because that means I got my money in with good odds and that is my goal every time. What upsets me is when I am the guy getting my money in as an underdog. I prefer to be the favorite, though obviously no hand is ever a lock. But if the odds are on my side the majority of the times the money goes in, then over time, the money will come back to me.

Today's bad beat story: I was playing the $50 European Daily at PokerRoom. I was making great decisions the whole way. As I was building a stack, a hand came up in which I was getting great odds to call with A3 from the big blind, a hand I would usually fold. It was unsuited, so I was basically looking to flop trips, two pair or a straight. The flop came A63 and I wound up getting all in against an anxious player who committed all his chips with A9. The board peeled off running kings to counterfeit my treys and let his 9 kicker scoop the pot, putting me on a short stack.

It was obviously a brutal beat, but I still had $900 in chips and I just reverted to short-stack mode. I built myself up over time and wound up making the money. With 23 players remaining, I had an above average stack of $11k and I was patiently waiting for a good spot. I was dealt AA for the first time in the event, and better yet, I was on the big blind, so I just had to wait for somebody to push into me. It folded around to the small blind, who pushed all in with 98h for $8k. I called and the flop came 744 no hearts. I nearly typed in gg, but I figured I'd wait for the turn card when he would be drawing dead. The turn was a J, so he wasn't exactly drawing dead yet. The river was a ten and he won the pot. I was crippled and out two hands later. It sucked, but what are you gonna do? You just take it in stride. I suppose if this was a WPT event, I would be crying like Matusow. Everyone who witnessed it recognized the injustice; the player who won the pot apologized for the beat; for me, there were two more cards coming that I was already thinking about. When I exit a tournament, I don't mind leaving as the victim of an injustice rather than looking like a donk whose luck finally ran out.

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