VARIANCE

Poker has been good to me since I bought in January first. I’m a winner and I’m not complaining, but I do see patterns in my success that I can’t fully explain.

I notice that when I’m ready to enter a new level of poker, I usually have great success up front to be followed by a leveling out period. How much of this is established players not respecting my raises and paying me off in full? How much of this is my playing more conservatively because I don’t want to blow it?

I have noticed playing Party Poker $1-2, NL $25 and NL $50 that I have averaged over $20 profit per 100 hands during the first 500-2000 hands. After the initial success my profit level is steady but drops in proportion. My $1-2 level dropped down to $2 per 100 hands when I finally decided to give it up for no- limit.

On the other hand, I didn’t have immediate success with $2-4 at Party Poker. It was way too tight.

Pacific Poker $1-2 and $2-4 were both profitable, but after big windfalls to begin with, I have settled into a channel where I fluctuate within a couple of hundred dollars.

I wonder if I will ever settle into an area where the profit is worth the time or if I will use up all the profit opportunities and be stuck playing for $2 an hour.